Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.297539 2.438538 2.587794 2.758259 2.948432 3.155098 3.398080
2025-03-23 2.110242 2.306224 2.524434 2.787946 3.101084 3.465998 3.930686
2025-03-30 1.955738 2.177246 2.432024 2.751359 3.147844 3.633960 4.292117
2025-04-06 1.836596 2.073036 2.351752 2.711323 3.173683 3.764890 4.608858
2025-04-13 1.727015 1.969694 2.261151 2.645657 3.153999 3.826649 4.830857
2025-04-20 1.676310 1.933049 2.247612 2.672830 3.252645 4.050523 5.306678
2025-04-27 1.641184 1.912274 2.250775 2.719253 3.377879 4.321071 5.891996
2025-05-04 1.609742 1.893401 2.253801 2.763652 3.501617 4.600546 6.539255
2025-05-11 1.556889 1.843678 2.212660 2.743126 3.527820 4.731860 6.955524
2025-05-18 1.510176 1.799471 2.176002 2.725488 3.555199 4.865640 7.398904
2025-05-25 1.464379 1.754272 2.135388 2.698931 3.565590 4.970796 7.806164
2025-06-01 1.422288 1.712178 2.096804 2.672489 3.573103 5.070328 8.221170
2025-06-08 1.387939 1.679889 2.071231 2.665022 3.612264 5.233412 8.821876
2025-06-15 1.367636 1.665818 2.070345 2.694191 3.713083 5.520547 9.790381
2025-06-22 1.329003 1.625005 2.029536 2.659673 3.704118 5.599882 10.276163
2025-06-29 1.291845 1.584952 1.988145 2.621840 3.686230 5.659181 10.728512
2025-07-06 1.249649 1.536599 1.933012 2.559740 3.621767 5.618364 10.894951
2025-07-13 1.235408 1.526898 1.933581 2.585444 3.713268 5.906520 12.121812
2025-07-20 1.227053 1.525060 1.945350 2.629335 3.840679 6.289964 13.846404
2025-07-27 1.218500 1.522520 1.955760 2.671287 3.967999 6.695576 15.919656
2025-08-03 1.194298 1.496696 1.930119 2.651896 3.977170 6.829608 17.034491
2025-08-10 1.171982 1.472974 1.906826 2.635229 3.990189 6.975009 18.305730
2025-08-17 1.148591 1.447071 1.879349 2.610125 3.984657 7.074013 19.444997